Nigeria recorded a merchandise trade surplus of ₦12.60 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, supported by higher exports and a lower import bill compared with the same period last year.
The latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the total value of goods traded between April and June reached ₦41.44 trillion. Exports were valued at ₦27.02 trillion, while imports stood at ₦14.42 trillion.
A trade surplus happens when a country sells more goods abroad than it buys from other countries. The latest figure means Nigeria’s exports exceeded its imports by almost ₦12.60 trillion during the quarter.
Sharp rise from Q2 2023
Nigeria recorded a much smaller surplus of ₦133.18 billion in the second quarter of 2023, shortly after President Bola Tinubu took office. The surplus reported for Q2 2026 was almost 95 times that amount in nominal naira terms.
However, the comparison requires caution. The naira has lost substantial value since 2023, and many internationally traded goods are priced in dollars. A weaker naira can make the local-currency value of exports look much larger even when the physical quantity sold has not increased at the same rate.
The figures therefore show a major rise in the naira value of the trade surplus, but they do not prove on their own that production or export volumes increased by the same proportion.
Compared with Q2 2025, the surplus increased by 101.32 percent. It was also about 67 percent higher than the ₦7.55 trillion surplus recorded in the first quarter of 2026, according to figures reported by Vanguard.
Exports rise while imports fall year on year
Exports accounted for 65.2 percent of Nigeria’s total merchandise trade in Q2 2026. Their value rose by 18.77 percent from ₦22.75 trillion in the same quarter of 2025 and by 27.64 percent from ₦21.17 trillion in Q1 2026.
Imports fell by 12.55 percent from ₦16.49 trillion in Q2 2025. However, they increased from ₦13.62 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.
This means the wider year-on-year surplus came from both stronger export earnings and lower imports. A fall in imports can support the trade balance, but it may also reflect weaker demand or reduced access to foreign goods. The trade report alone does not establish which factor had the greatest effect.
Oil remains central to export earnings
Crude oil remained Nigeria’s largest single export. It generated ₦12.91 trillion and represented 47.79 percent of all exports during the quarter, according to a report based on the NBS figures.
Other oil products were valued at ₦10.38 trillion. Together, crude oil and other petroleum products accounted for most of Nigeria’s export earnings, showing that the country’s trade position remains heavily linked to the energy sector.
That dependence leaves export revenue exposed to changes in international oil prices, production levels and global demand.
The expansion of domestic refining is also changing the structure of Nigeria’s petroleum trade. Reuters reported in August that the Dangote refinery had helped drive a seven-fold increase in Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum-product exports since 2023, citing the United States Energy Information Administration.
Non-oil picture remains mixed
The report showed mixed results outside the oil industry. Agricultural exports fell to ₦802.99 billion, a decline of 36.09 percent from Q2 2025 and 31.51 percent from the previous quarter.
Cashew nuts in shell were Nigeria’s largest agricultural export, followed by cocoa beans and sesame seeds.
Raw-material exports rose sharply to ₦2.31 trillion, helped by urea exports worth ₦1.07 trillion. Solid-mineral exports also increased to ₦146.91 billion.
Manufactured-goods exports, however, fell by 51.10 percent compared with the same period of 2025, reaching ₦393.03 billion. The decline suggests that Nigeria still faces difficulty expanding exports of processed and manufactured products.
Major trading partners
India was Nigeria’s largest export destination during the quarter, receiving goods valued at ₦3.29 trillion. Spain, the Netherlands, the United States and Togo completed the five leading export markets.
China remained Nigeria’s biggest source of imports, supplying goods worth ₦5.92 trillion, or 41.02 percent of the total import bill. Machinery and transport equipment formed the largest import category, followed by chemicals and manufactured goods.
The ₦12.60 trillion surplus is positive for Nigeria’s external trade position. However, a stronger and more stable trade system will depend on expanding agriculture, manufacturing and other non-oil exports rather than relying mainly on petroleum and changes in the naira’s value.
