Global oil prices fell in early trading on Thursday, 15 October 2026, as investors assessed the risk of further disruption to Middle Eastern energy shipments and possible US measures to reduce oil transport costs.
According to Reuters , Brent crude futures were down $1.39, or 1.31%, at $104.67 a barrel by 01:16 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell $1.02, or 1.07%, to $94.07. These were early-session quotations, not Thursday’s closing prices.
Shipping Risks Keep Markets on Edge
The decline partly reversed gains from Wednesday, when concerns about attacks on shipping and energy facilities supported crude prices. Maritime officials cited by Reuters said a container ship and a dry bulk carrier had sunk near the Strait of Hormuz after being struck by projectiles in separate incidents.
The waterway is a major route for Gulf oil exports. Attacks or restrictions can delay shipments and increase insurance and freight costs, even when producers have crude available for sale.
US Weighs Changes to Vessel Sanctions
A separate Reuters report said the Trump administration was considering easing restrictions on some previously sanctioned vessels associated with the so-called shadow fleet. The aim would be to expand shipping capacity and reduce freight costs. The proposal had not been adopted at the time of the report, and its practical impact remains uncertain.
Gulf Exports Recover, but Risks Persist
The International Energy Agency’s October Oil Market Report said Gulf crude exports rose by 4.4 million barrels per day in September to 13.9 million barrels per day, reaching more than 75% of pre-war levels. The agency warned that renewed attacks on regional infrastructure and tankers could undermine the recovery.
Reuters also reported that Russian crude output rose by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day. Separately, industry figures indicated an 11.1 million-barrel decline in US crude stocks. Such estimates should not be confused with official government inventory data.
What the Decline Means
Thursday’s early price movement does not show that the threat to supplies has passed. Crude prices respond to changing expectations about shipping access, production, inventories, inventories, and government policy. A sustained fall could eventually ease costs for oil importers, but domestic fuel prices also depend on exchange rates, taxes, transport costs, and the timing of local price reviews.
With security risks around the Strait of Hormuz unresolved, further price swings remain possible.
