The African Union Commission has called on Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to avoid actions or public statements that could worsen tensions, following a rapid deterioration in relations between the three countries.
In a statement issued on 1 October, the Commission urged them to keep diplomatic channels open and resolve their differences through dialogue. It said it was prepared to support efforts to reduce tensions in consultation with the governments concerned. The statement did not announce formal mediation talks or say that any of the three countries had accepted such an offer. (au.int)
The appeal comes as renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia raises concern about a wider conflict. It also follows separate diplomatic confrontations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and between Ethiopia and Egypt.
Ethiopia and Eritrea cut diplomatic ties
Ethiopia said on Thursday that it was closing its embassy in Eritrea and ordered 10 Eritrean diplomats to leave within 48 hours. Its government described the move as a response to what it called hostile actions by Eritrea. Asmara then announced that it was severing all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia.
Addis Ababa has accused Eritrea of supporting an armed opposition alliance led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF. Eritrea denies the allegation. Ethiopia has also accused Egypt and Sudan of backing the alliance; both deny doing so. These claims concern a developing conflict and should not be treated as established evidence of either country’s involvement. (reuters.com)
The reversal in relations is significant. Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopia’s federal government during the 2020–2022 war in Tigray. Relations between the neighbours later worsened, including over Ethiopia’s calls for dependable access to the sea. Eritrea has expressed concern about its port of Assab, while Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has said his country intends to pursue sea access peacefully. (reuters.com)
Egypt and Ethiopia expel diplomats.
A separate dispute has brought Egypt directly into the latest diplomatic escalation. Ethiopia declared an Egyptian diplomat unwelcome and gave him 48 hours to leave. Cairo responded by ordering an Ethiopian embassy counsellor to depart within the same period.
Neither reciprocal expulsion amounts to a declaration of war. Both, however, reduce space for routine diplomatic contact at a time when the African Union is asking the countries to preserve it. The AU statement addressed all three governments and urged them to refrain from conduct that could threaten regional peace. (au.int, reuters.com)
Ethiopia and Egypt have had longstanding disagreements over the use of Nile waters and Ethiopia’s large hydroelectric dam. The immediate AU warning follows the latest expulsions and the deteriorating security situation around Ethiopia; the Commission’s short statement did not attribute the current escalation to one dispute alone.
Fighting brings urgency to the warning.
The diplomatic moves are unfolding alongside fighting between Ethiopia’s federal forces and an alliance led by the TPLF. On Friday, a militia allied with the federal government claimed it had taken a town near Mekelle, Tigray’s main city. Reuters said it could not immediately verify video purportedly showing fighters there, and military and TPLF representatives did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the reported advance. (reuters.com)
Two Mekelle residents told Reuters that banks and shops had closed as people anticipated possible fighting. TPLF chairperson Debretsion Gebremichael acknowledged on Thursday that federal forces had occupied parts of Tigray and said his forces would counterattack. These accounts point to a serious escalation, although the precise positions of opposing forces remain difficult to establish independently. (reuters.com)
The 2020–2022 war in northern Ethiopia killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions. Its history gives weight to the AU’s concern that renewed combat, combined with disputes among neighbouring governments, could have consequences beyond Ethiopia’s borders. That wider outcome is a risk, not an event the AU has said has already occurred.
For now, the Commission’s proposed course is restraint and continued communication. Whether the countries take it up, and whether fighting in Tigray eases, will determine whether its warning becomes the start of a diplomatic effort or another appeal issued during an escalating crisis.
