The number of immigrant visas issued and refugees admitted to the United States from 45 Muslim-majority countries fell by 96% between December 2024 and February 2026, according to an analysis by the Cato Institute.
Cato calculated that the combined monthly total dropped from 21,096 to 808. Its findings were published on 28 September 2026, using US government data available through February.
What the 96% figure measures
The figure covers two routes to permanent settlement: immigrant visas and refugee admissions. It does not include tourists, students, temporary workers or every person crossing the US border.
It also groups people by nationality, not religion. Someone from a Muslim-majority country may be Muslim, Christian or follow another faith.
According to Cato’s analysis, immigrant visa issuances in the group fell by 95%. Refugee admissions fell from 5,157 in December 2024 to none in February 2026.
Afghan nationals accounted for 27% of the overall decline, Cato said. The combined monthly number for Afghans fell from 5,563 to nine during the period.
US restrictions and the wider picture
The Trump administration has introduced a series of restrictions affecting entry, immigrant visa processing and refugee admissions. Cato attributes the steep fall to several of those measures, including country-specific entry restrictions and a pause affecting immigrant visa applicants from many countries.
The US State Department publishes monthly immigrant visa figures, which it describes as preliminary and subject to change.
The comparison is between two individual months, rather than complete years. It establishes a sharp decline in the categories Cato examined, but cannot by itself tell readers how many people from those countries entered the US through every other route or what the final total for 2026 will be.
The administration has defended its immigration restrictions on security and other policy grounds. Cato argues that the measures have also affected families seeking to reunite and people eligible for lawful refugee protection.
