Rebuilding global oil stocks depleted during the Middle East conflict could take up to two years, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser has said.
Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on Monday, 5 October, Nasser warned that oil and fuel supplies would remain under pressure until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened and confidence in the route returned. Even then, he said, countries and companies would have to refill inventories while continuing to meet daily demand.
The two-year figure is Nasser’s estimate, rather than a confirmed timetable. It refers to replacing oil drawn from stockpiles, not to how long the strait will remain disrupted or how long consumers will pay higher prices.
Why stocks have fallen
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted by the conflict. Producers, companies and governments have used stored crude oil and refined fuels to help make up for the shortfall.
Nasser said more than one billion barrels had been drawn from global stocks, with most of that coming from commercial inventories held by companies. He estimated that less than six billion barrels remained in commercial storage and said much of it could not readily be used. Those figures are Aramco’s assessment of the market.
The International Energy Agency said on 2 October that about 325 million barrels had already been released under an emergency action announced in March. It also said Middle Eastern crude exports had recovered significantly, while flows of refined products remained severely constrained. That difference helps explain why more crude reaching the market does not immediately ease pressure on fuels such as diesel.
What happens next
Emergency stocks can soften a supply shock, but using them leaves less in reserve for another disruption. Rebuilding those stocks would add demand for oil alongside ordinary consumption, potentially keeping pressure on supplies as trade routes recover.
Aramco is studying additional crude export routes and more storage overseas to help it manage future interruptions, Nasser said. For now, his warning is about the size of the supply cushion available to the market. The pace of any recovery will depend on shipping access, fuel supplies, and how quickly inventories can be replaced.
